2003 Season

Edition No. 8 

   April 22, 2003     

"It is All About Hitting"

     Sort of like "buy low, sell high" thinking about baseball as being all about hitting is one of those truisms that is easier to say than it is to do. But, after 17 seasons of torrid HSL competition, I think I can distill the essence of success in this league down to a few key points:

     1)  It IS all about hitting---you gotta have 9 or 10 guys that you can count on to mash, day in, day out.  The reason is that pitching is far to variable to count on from start to start, week to week, month to month, year to year. You don't buy that?  Just check out the three best pitchers on the planet season to date:  Pedro, Unit, and Schilling have won exactly 2 games in 12 combined starts.  Will they get better? Probably, but if you don't own them, you are looking at a pitching leaderboard populated by guys like Shawn Chacon, Esteban Loaiza (redux from last year's April), R Hernandez (nice pick, Stretch), R Rodriguez (an E snag in last week's sup draft---more on sup drafting later), and the inimitable Woodrow Wilson Williams.  Puhlease. The odds on THAT quintet all finishing in the league's top 20 at season's end are longer than the odds of Johnny being the first one to fold his tent at the boats at the next apres-draft Ameristar sortie.  Given that pitching is more variable than hitting BY FAR, the key is grab guys that can rake, load up on arms that go out every fifth day, and pray for a lot of home starts against teams like . . . Detroit.

     2)  Given it IS all about hitting, rule 2 is get guys that not only hit, but PLAY often.  The road to the second division is filled with a lot guys named Kal Daniels, Barry Larkin, and Jack Clark.  Their siren song is sweet, but 155 games @ 3.5 ppg beats 130 @ 4.0 every time, and it also makes for a lot less anguish at 11:50 cst, when you wonder whether to drop Larry Walker after three straight DNPs.  You KNOW if you drop him, he plays the next day and goes 4 3 3 5 with a walk and a couple of extra base hits .  .  . and if you keep him in there, he sits again.  So, opt for consistency and durability.   

 "Reversion to the Mean is the single most powerful force in Baseball"

     To assume otherwise, is to court disaster, tempt fates, draw to an inside straight, and piss into the wind.  Given enough time (and 162 games is usually enough), you SHOULD be able to expect the average performance to occur MOST of the time.  If you buy into the power of Reversion to the Mean, you draft players that hit, players that play, pitchers that pitch 200 innings often, own players on winning teams, and favor home runs and OBP on offense and OBP allowed by pitchers over batting average and wins.   

     The first three weeks' results call the sanity of a Reversion to the Mean approach into question, big time.  Things like the Pedro/Unit/Schilling/Maddux combined start, (http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/ stark_jayson/1541597.html), the Royals 14-3 run out of the gate, Rey Ordonez' 3 home run explosion, and a whole laundry list of who's hot versus who's not pairs test the faith of Reversion to the Mean zealots, but the sanity of the law of large numbers will prevail, and over the course of the season, barring injury, the who's nots on the following list should spank the who's hots, with point changes in the HSL standings following suit:

2B---Jiminez (2nd, 99 points) versus Kent (10th, 63)

CF---Bradley (5th, 77 points) versus Berkman (24th, 32)

C----Mayne (4th, 80 points) versus Piazza (27th, 31)

SS--Alex "Other Alex" Gonzalez (2nd, 93 points) versus Tejada (22nd, 37)

RF--Mondesi (6th, 80 points) versus (Abreu, 19th, 47, and Dye, 27th, 33)

     I am sure there are others, but you catch my drift.   

A quick look back at the draft--

--random thoughts and observations:

     S-Jax---Great draft, but how could it not be, when Johnny gets 5 of the top 49 players?  Durazo was a terrific pick in the 14th.  He is off to a great start, looks for all the world like Kal Daniels (tons of HRs/AB, walks, and an HMO's worst nightmare), BUT if he can play 15 games, he will be a dif-maker for the Jax.  Can you really stomach Jamie Moyer winning 17 games at age 47?  HOW does he do it?  Nice outing for Mike Williams on WGN last Saturday night.  McLendon may be the most inept manager in MLB, lack of talent on his roster aside.  All in all, Jax will contend all year.  Their shortstop can flat out hit.

     Reds---RJ's age may finally be showing, but that was the pick at that spot. I am guessing he'll be back, win 17-20, and be net positive in a big way for the wily hired gun of the world's biggest utility.  talk to Mitch when your electric bill goes thru the roof next year, because it will be HIS fault.  I still think the Big Fart, er, Hurt was a steal in round 14.  Tricko also has assembled an enviable stable of young bats----Blalock, Crede, and A Jones can hit.  And it IS all about hitting.  Mitch, it is yours to lose.  

     Wahoos---love my sticks, but the pitchers are a Lake Wobegone staff---they are all slightly above average (ex Schilling)--which is a problem, because it leads to trying to play the dreaded shall game, which as well all know, is about as productive as deciding to room with Chuck and split groceries 50/50.  The 'Hoos need 3 pitchers to separate from the pack, then  let their hitters mash taters like Aunt Jemima on crack.  Bill James' Stats' Projections, for whatever they might be worth, have the 'Hoos top 12 hitters combining for 330 HRs.  After three weeks, the 'Hoos in reality are projected to hit 303, and that is with Berkman, Thome and Dye hitting 4 COMBINED to this point (they hit 118 combined last year, and have averaged 35, 39, and 26 per 162 games played, respectively, in their careers).  If those 3 REVERT TO THE MEAN over the next 5 months, the 'Hoos will contend.

     Cubs---the only pair of top two draft picks off to a worse start, other than Schilling-Berkman, is Pedro/Tejada, altho it is about a dead heat.  (I am not counting Kent-Jeter, because injuries are hard to predict, unless you are Barry Larkin, or Griffey Junior).  Some nice hitters--Glaus, I-Rod (looks to be back), Sweeney (oddly quiet thus far despite all the over-achievers around him), Boone, Edmonds (nice start, now STAY HEALTHY), the other Japanese guy (I like H-Mat better I-Suz), and the token 44 year old DH type that Chuck adores (Burks).  No young guns with any apparent upside surprise potential, and Garcia and Nomo are positive and negative Mean Reversion types.  Nomo cannot be better than last year, and Garcia should be a lock to improve on last year.  Middle of the pack, but contends if Juan Encarnacion or someone else steps it up.  Chuck showed less patience with Travis Hafner than Lou Piniella does with inept umpiring.  I think Hafner will matter this season, and in years to come.

     Chiefs---A draft laden with savvy picks.  Like modern art, you are supposed to like it, but do you really get it?  Halladay, Gagne, Thee Thee Thabathia, Jeff Weaver and Rod-Rigo Lopeth are all young pitchers, and they tend to be more unpredictable than older, more established pitchers like, say, Greg Maddux and Unit.  I like the players individually, but I just don't see the team jelling.  I LOVE Jerry Hairston like I love long lines, commercial air travel, and listening to Bone Daddy try to explain  why the NSAA wild card points system is just like the rule against perpetuities.  I just don't get the  Chiefs.  Still, some guys with upside---Weaver has more stuff than Chuck has mesh fashion alternatives, and Beltran and Rollins have upside. Durham, a career Wahoo, should thrive with the Giants.  Upper Division, but is it possible to have a team with too much mojo?

     Bombers---If Kevin Millar is your best player, you might be looking at a long summer.  That said, Vladimir G is a Better Player than Millar, so that is a start.  Renteria is good, but probably not as good as his last 3 weeks. Chris Stynes will get 70 games at Coors, so that works.  The glass is half full, but it may be a smallish vessel used for trendy after dinner drinks, as opposed to something fraternity-types use for arcane initiation rituals. Maybe someone will accidentally drop A-Rod in the supplemental.  If you can't say something really nice . . .go on to the next team . . .but wait, Mike is the NICEST guy in the league, so let's go with 6th place and work from there.

     Senators---Who could not absolutely LOVE Helton and Pujols?  Me, for sure---that was the 'Hoos 2002 top 2 picks.  Albert will be back (like Arnold), and he carries a large stick.  Helton is the gold standard, and Kerry Wood leads the Cubs to the playoffs.   Abreu will finish in the top 5 of RFs, Vazquez is a stud, Aurilia is as solid as Procter & Gamble in a dot.com world---you only appreciate him when you realize how many WORSE alternatives there are out there.  Kotsay is ok, Ausmus went to an Ivy-League Baseball powerhouse (I'll buy lunch for the first HSLr to name 2 other DartCol alums currently on MLB rosters), and D'Angel D-Jiminez hits lead-off for the best offense west of the Hudson River. Brown has comeback potential, and it is unlikely that Benitez will blow EVERY save opp this year (apparently, the Mets have blown more 9th inning leads this early than any team EVER----is that good news or bad news vis-a-vis Benitez?).  A nice roster, well-drafted, now, if the Skip can just resist a tendency to over-manage (dropping Jason Jennings . . .for Jae Wong Who?  Side bet---Jennings ends up 2003 with 3 more wins than J-W-S).

     Blues---uh, Blongo, the draft is supposed to be FUN!  Bonds and Soriano, now that is FUN!!  The staff rocks---altho I am not an O Perez fan, and the Nen thing is glass fully empty.  Was Reed active for that bludgeoning by the Yanks?  survey says . . . whew!  Hitting may be an issue as the season wears on---Payton works in Coors, but Batista succeeds despite AWFUL mechanics, and after about Erstad, who himself has had difficulty getting back to .300, it gets thin (Furcal? Fick is . . ok . . .Gibbons . . .EYoung . . .Alex Other Gonzalez might keep up this pace . . .well, if the Blues win it all, it would be in keeping in how the season has started---remarkable in how improbable events keep happening with astounding frequency.

(E---do we get paid for writing this thing by the syllable?)

     Redbirds---The first 5 picks---Oswalt, Manny (he reminds me of the Talking Heads line---"I've changed my hairstyle so many times, I don't know what I look like"---what the heck is THAT all about??), Colon, rolen, and Smoltz rock, even if manny and colon are tough to look at each night on Baseball Tonight.  Kearns is not a surprise---he may be the best player in the NL when Barry Bonds retires.  David Wells--also tough to look at, but the guy produces.  Actually, this team is the alter ego of the Chiefs----Ugly Players (did we mention Mo lost 50 pounds and still makes the Subway guy's "Before" picture look pretty good?), solid results.  I'd look for them to finish higher than the Chiefs, but bring far less at auction at Gallery Trendage in the Old Market.  Offense goes down faster than Monica Lewinsky once you get past  D. Lee in round 12.  If it really is all about hitting, the Red-Birds best hope Milton Gameboy keeps up his Berkman (1999-2002) pace.  If it is all about pitching, the RBs could win it all, and instead an asterisk, I'd put 3 standard deviation signs next to his name on the plate, because it'd be a 1 in 100 outcome.

     Tribe---Bob, you are spending your time doing the wrong thing.  Instead of looking for important papers on your desk, you should move to New York, rent a co-op in the trendy, artistic So-Ho district, and write for Letterman. you are far too funny to be toiling in obscurity for a bunch of idiots mired in middle class America, who are buried in consumer debt, hounded by shrill wives, bored to tears by service economy jobs that are a joke, and who live for 15 or 20 box scores on the internet each night.  Could you get me tickets to Letterman?  I think the team you drafted will do at least as well as your diamond Legends team, even though I think Juan Marichal is a better pitcher than Shane Reynolds.  You are smart (clearly the only one that "gets it"--it IS all about hitting), funny, and, dare I say, good looking.  It is just a matter of time before you win this stupid league.  Not this year, with these players, but some day.  Maybe your team mascot should be that little black kid on Angels in the Outfield that keeps repeating "it could happen . . ."   

     Irates---Mark Prior in the first round.  Talk about an Edgy Pick!  He does not disappoint.  He wears his pants high, classic Brett-style, unless he gets rocked (maybe once, perhaps twice a millennium) . . .in which case he goes Jeffrey Leonard, drops the pants to just above the Ramirez (2001 version) line, and gasses the hapless real world Pie-Rates for 9 innings. Talk about a young pitcher who knows how to make adjustments.  Your draft went a tad less swimmingly apres-Prior, but on paper, the names look pretty good (see op cit Chiefs' comments).  Spivey---7th round pick, now consigned ignominiously to the FREE AGENT ASH HEAP?  Jesse Jackson will scream racism, and I'd ascribe it to A.D.D., but I have never seen you move, much less move THAT fast.   Lots of young guys with upside will make the season fun----Phelps, Hudson, Wells (V), Patterson (altho I am not convinced by him . . .yet), Sexson, Wilkerson, Burrell . . .this is the anti-Chuck team.  The more I look, the more I like.  Trade offer from the 'Hoos forthcoming.  Keep the faith, you will finish higher than some, below others.  Buy low, sell high.

     Tigers---Sigh.  Larkin SEEMED savvy in late March.  Now . . .that seems about as smart as taking a beating while protesting some liberal cause in the '70's.    You know you did the "right" thing, but it HURTS, and for what end?  Royce Clayton?  Yeowch.  Hillenbrand is off to a good start.  Both Gonzalez AND J.D. Drew got dotted on Sunday, neither went on the DL, but with Drew, the over/under on games played is about 110.  Kent is Great. Bernie is great.  Carlos Baerga and tom Glavine were top 5 picks in 1994. F-Rod may not stand for Francisco.  The Bone Daddy's rock, and this team will outperform its real world namesake, but my guess is that several visits to your dentist this summer will provide more enjoyment than your HSL team. Still, Jeff Cirillo seems to have been crammed into Thelma and Louise's trunk---talk about a drop-off in a career!  Safe to say we know Moises Alou's and Steve Finley's ceilings.  They are not particularly high . . .

This Year and Last Week:

     Nice week for the author's favorite team, who led the pack in week 3.  Reds, Jax, and R-birds also posted 400 point weeks.  Nice going.  I'd gladly pen the FTB every week if it meant having the most points each week.  Absent that, hopefully this effort is so hapless I'll get off the hook the rest of the year.  I vote Bob as permanent FTB author, or at least as a frequent sub for the Skip. 

     Year to Date, the Reds lead, closely followed by R-Birds, BLUES (wowsa!!), and Jax.  'Hoos were about 10th this time last year, and with a better team this year, 5th doesn't seem too bad.  My bet is that Berkman, Dye, Schilling, and others play a little better the rest of the way.  If not, at least they'll hit.  And it IS all about hitting (altho the top 2 pitching teams thus far are in second and third----for now).

     Should be a great race the rest of the way.  The author will consider all trade proposals, and won't dismiss any out of hand.  Enjoy the week, and get outside and play some pepper with a wood bat.  WHW TB    

Editor’s comments:

     As always, I reserve the right to inject a few of my own comments for your consideration:

     v  Just our luck to have Possum be scheduled as the guest writer the same week that his Wahoos catch fire and lead the league in points.

     v  We only thought that the league had achieved full parity last season.  After three full weeks of play, only 260 points separate the 1st place Reds (1188.5) from the last place Tribe (928.5).  At this time last year, there was a spread of 438 between first (Cubs*, 1188.5) and last (Redbirds, 751).  Twilight Zone:  Note the Reds have exactly (to the half-point) the same number of points (11.88.5) as did the league-leading Cubs* after three weeks last year.  Spooky.

     v  As you all well know, I am usually the last person to complain about player injuries and generalized unfairness when it comes to matters of team performance.  But even the old Skipper has a breaking point.  Already in this young season I have two players on the disabled list, Ken Griffey, Jr. (I know, I know), and injuries to at least five other players which have caused them to miss at least two games (Pujols, Vina, Guzman, Koskie and Edgar).  If this is an indication of what the season is going to be like on the medical front, I’m in big trouble.

     v  To rub a bit of salt in my own wounds, I drafted the suddenly-fragile Pujols exactly one spot ahead of current points leader Alfonso Soriano (who now has 126 points, even before Monday afternoon’s orgy at the Metrodome in which he hit a grand slam) and is threatening to blow away the field.  As the sagacious U-Bob would say, “Coulda, woulda, shoulda, mighta, maybe.”      

     v  Speaking of medical news, RJ’s ailing knee must be worse than people thought.  What is truly scary to think about is that the Reds are still in first place even though the Big Unit is 0-3 with a 8.31 ERA and negative 1 pitching points for the Reds.  Who would’ve thunk that he and Maddux (7.52 ERA, minus 7 BJFB points) would start the season a combined 1-5.

     v  Is there anyone here who thinks that Itchie doesn’t utter thanks to Allah every night for directing him to draft A-Rod and his herniated neck instead of RJ and his undisclosed gimpy knees?  You can bet that Itchie has been a frequent (five times a day) visitor to the Mosque this year.

     v  Wasn’t it Big Guy who whined all last season about the combustible Armando Benitez, the then-Tiger?  I’ve got news for you, Big Guy.  ’Mondo has been a human Molotov cocktail for the Senators this season, having already blown four saves through April 20 (he blew four all of last season), and sporting an ERA of 6.97 and a won-loss record of 0-3.  Take that, Topper!

     v  Here is a sobering thought:  The Irates are the owners of the three top pitchers in our league at the present time, Mike Mussina with 100 (taken by Denny in Round 2), Mark Prior with 96 (SloPay’s top pick), and Shawn Chacon, 94 points (taken in the Free Agent Draft).  Somewhere, maybe everywhere, pigs are truly sprouting wings.

     v  In the topsy-turvy world of pitching, chaos is the rule and order is the exception.  Of the top fifteen scorers among the starting pitchers, only four (Mussina, Prior, Wood and Morris) were drafted in the top five rounds.  Three of the top fifteen (Chacon, Loaiza and Ricardo Rodriguez) are free agent pickups, and Runelvys Hernandez, No. 4 on the list, was picked by Blongo in the 27th round.  The top closer, Mike McDougal of the Kansas City Royals, was also a free agent acquisition.

WEEK 3 STANDINGS

THRU APRIL 20, 2003

WEEK 3 POINT TOTALS

Top Pitchers

through Week 3

Top Hitters

through Week 3