A key to a winning ball club is
positional flexibility and depth.
The HSL has that in spades. This
week, Mitch is unable to get his FTB
done. . . , but like a vintage Joe
Maddon team, I can plug into Mitch’s
spot in the lineup and hopefully
provide a few quality at bats with
this on the fly FTB piece.
This week will mark the halfway
point of the MLB and HSL season.
Rather than waste a ton of FTB space
with a lengthy recitation of the
current standings and individual
player point totals and leaders,
who’s hot, etc., (you all can look
that stuff up on your own, you don’t
need me to cut and paste it, most of
it is misleading because the
standings and “who’s hot” over a
couple weeks changes every day), I
will just note that at the half way
point, things are as follows:
-
Cubs and Wahoos are battling it
out for first.
-
Tigers, Bombers, Blues, Jacks,
and Bums are bunched in the hunt
for third.
-
Chiefs, Monarchs, Senators,
Bears, Redbirds, and Tribe are
in a scrum to lead the lower
division/avoid the cellar.
The second half promises to be fun
and exciting. It’s baseball. What
else would you expect?
Four things, to me, will determine
how the standings end up (beside the
obvious “whoever ends up with the
most points will win.” Duh):
-
Injuries. Injuries have a huge
impact on MLB baseball, and the
effect is magnified in the HSL,
where it is harder to replace
top talent that goes down with
significant injuries (because
the overall talent pool is
higher than in MLB). If your
stud gets hurt in the HSL, the
points lost between your stud
and his replacement are
material, and the effect can be
devastating. If the injuries
multiply, the effects are
exponential, not additive.
-
Mean reversion (negative) –
players that have overachieved
relative to career norms can be
expected to experience mean
reversion. Among the current
top 50 hitters, I’d argue that
the following have had first
halves significantly more
productive than their
established career norms: Ian
Kinsler, Daniel Murphy, Trevor
Story (went for X-rays today –
broken hand?), Marcel Ozuna, Ben
Zobrist, Jake Lamb, Gregory
Polanco, Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce,
Jean Segura, Michael Saunders,
Jonathan Villar, and Aledmys
Diaz. They are all solid
players, but their first half
performances are likely well
ahead of anything any of the HSL
managers expected on draft day.
To win the HSL, you usually need
one or two breakout, career
performances . . .how well this
group can maintain their first
half production will have a
meaningful impact on the final
standings. Among pitchers,
Julio Teheran, Steven Wright,
Colby Lewis, Drew Pomeranz, and
Tyler Chatwood have done a lot
better than one might have
reasonably expected on draft day
. . .
-
Mean reversion (positive) – the
opposite group would be “good
players who have not performed
to their established career
norms” – if players in this
group improve toward their true
and established career levels,
their HSL teams should improve
accordingly: Jose Abreu, Bryce
Harper, Andrew McCutcheon,
Buster Posey, Adrian Gonzalez,
Troy Tulowitzki, and Hunter
Pence (injured). The first
four in particular would appear
to be solid bets to have good
second halves given their career
norms are a lot better than they
have produced in the first
half. Pitchers in this bucket
would include Felix Hernandez,
Matt Harvey, Hisashi Iwakuma,
Yordano Ventura, Dallas Keuchel
(defending AL Cy Young winner)
and Chris Archer are notable
disappointments that have tons
of skills . . . .and would seem
to be good bets for second half
improvement.
-
Hitting. It is all about
hitting. You hit, you win.
Miscellany
“God Save the Queen”
The British citizens voted “to
leave” the EU. This has caused some
disruption in the capital markets.
Art not only imitates life, it
sometimes predicts it. The Sex
Pistols got it right 40 years ago
with this classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC4RFY8vtuM
“God Save the Queen . . .we mean
it man . . . .there’s no future
. . . and England’s burning . .
. “
That’s right . . . leave the EU, and
there IS no future for Britain.
Democracy can be a bitch.
(and in case you think it’s about
“being right” as opposed to “having
the right marketing message”, think
again. The Sex Pistols burned
bright for a few years, and then
disappeared into the discount bin at
Homer’s. Meanwhile, the Clash
enjoyed huge commercial success and
popular acceptance, and why not?
They have the best album cover of
all time, shown below):
The Clash --- good music, better
marketing.
The Sex Pistols – great music, spot
on message.
Long live rock. The U.K. post
Brexit???
“Clint Hurdle”
The HSL trip this year is
“Pittsburgh.” The Pirates are
managed by one-time first round pick
but journeyman player Clint
Hurdle. Hurdle is my favorite MLB
manager. He is a better person than
he is a manager, and that is saying
something. Clint recently won his
1,000th MLB game as a
manager, and is the only manager to
1) take the Rockies to the World
Series, and 2) lead the moribund
Pirates organization to a winning
season since the early 1990’s – the
longest stretch of futility in MLB
over that period of time.
The Pirates renaissance is explored
in the recent book “Big Data
Baseball” by Travis Sawchik. “Big
Data Baseball” is in my view the
best baseball book since Moneyball
came out in 2003. The book explores
how Hurdle successfully led and
managed a seismic change in how the
Pirates approached the task of
putting a winning team on the
field. We all know how hard it is
to win ONE MLB game (how many times
have we watched a “sure win” for one
of our pitchers end up in a bitter
defeat???). Big Data is a GREAT
read, both from a baseball
standpoint, but also from the
perspective of how hard change is to
implement, and how important culture
is in defining organizational
success.
Hurdle has Omaha connections – he
played here while in the Royals’
organization. Hurdle is about
people, and about doing things the
right way. He has two daily email
lists --- and the list of people on
his emails is impressive. Hurdle
welcomes anyone interested to
receive his emails --- his email is
Clint.Hurdle@Pirates.com. He
answers EVERY email, usually with
clever wit. I would commend you to
email him and get on his email
lists. One email is a daily
devotional. The other is an email
that addresses “personal development
and managing people/culture.” I
have learned a lot from his emails
and look forward to Clint’s insights
every morning.
Clint is a person who is making the
world a better place, one person at
a time, EVERY day. He is a star.
“We Are Family”
As I write this, the Pirates are
playing the Dodgers on Sunday Night
Baseball. The Pirates are rocking
the second worst baseball unis in
baseball history (the worst are the
Padre’s late ‘70’s brown and yellow
fashion Hindenburgs): the “We Are
Family” bright yellow and black
get-ups of the Stargell-led late
‘70’s Pirates.
The uni’s suck, but the message is
dead on: We ARE Family, and family
is what is most important. We can
choose our friends, but we are dealt
our families.
I am blessed to have remarkable and
amazing families: my own family, my
church family, my HSL family, my
work family . . .the list goes on
and on.
The past two weekends, I was
fortunate to spend with 1) my son
Max (he rarely gets to Omaha),
playing in the OCC-member guest golf
tournament (72 holes over 3 days),
and 2) this weekend, Taylor, my
middle child, was in town from
Denver for the CWS. During some
down time, I asked Tay what she
would like to do. She said “let’s
go hit!!” Tay could rake in high
school, and she and her roommate Jay
still hit in the cages in Denver.
So on Saturday morning, Jay, Tay and
I ventured out to UBA (I’d never
been) to take some hacks. We hit in
the 70 mph cage, and Tay, using a
men’s bat, hit line drive after line
drive.
Coincidentally, Curt Shockey, who
was the hitting coach at Westside
when Max played there, walked by.
Ironically, I had mentioned
“Shockey” to Jay earlier that
morning when he and I were talking
about the mental part of hitting
(while scoring Dunkin Donuts).
Shockey makes good hitters better,
and he excels at getting hitters to
be positive through focusing on the
mental side of hitting. We had a
great chat outside the cages, and it
was memorable: time spent with my
daughter, hitting, and talking
hitting with one of the best hitting
coaches Nebraska has ever had.
Shockey’s Bell West Legion team is
27-3 so far this summer . . .Hitting
with the kids was incredible fun,
and such a blessing. Baseball
transcends and bonds families. We
spent the afternoon watching Arizona
hammer Okie State at TD. It was an
all-time great baseball day . . . .
.
I also ran into some extended family
members at the CWS last Wednesday
night: Joe and Will Ernst. It was
fun to catch up with those boys and
talk baseball in the outfield
concourse at TD Ameritrade. We are
blessed to have great kids, and
those kids are blessed to have a
baseball family lineage, and the
values and experiences that they
will share with their kids . . . .
Meanwhile, Kuhl beats Kershaw
tonight. THAT is SO baseball.
(Says here Chuck will acquire and
drop Kuhl this week, if Denny
doesn’t beat him to it).
The Second Half
As we look to the second half,
here’s what’s up:
Do something nice for someone else
every day
Stay positive
Be thankful for everything
It is all about hitting
Over/Under on total Chuck
transactions: 195
Discipline trumps conviction
Know that, eventually, the NL will
have the DH, and baseball will be
better for it
Look for your pitch and put a great
swing on it
Think Forward
It is incredibly hard to win one
major league baseball game
Zero birdie putts that are short
become birdies
Jake Lamb
1 Samuel 14
TB
